At the Afreximbank annual meeting in Abuja on June 27, 2025, Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote unveiled a sweeping vision: within just 40 months, Africa will no longer import fertilizer. His strategy hinges on doubling the capacity of his $2.5 billion plant near Lagos—from 3 million to 6 million metric tons of urea annually—making it the world’s largest urea complex, eclipsing Qatar’s output.
Why This Matters
Current context: Africa imports over 6 million tons of fertilizer each year, draining valuable foreign exchange reserves—especially pressing as Nigeria’s naira remains weak.
Agricultural boost: More locally produced fertilizer means lower costs, better yields, and improved food security across the continent.
Export potential: Already exporting 37% of its current output to countries like the U.S., Brazil, India, and Mexico, Dangote aims to leverage this base to grow sales across Africa under AfCFTA.
The Roadmap: Scaling Up from Lagos to the World
Plant Expansion
Build out an additional 3 million tonnes per year to the existing facility—doubling capacity to 6 million tons.
Supply Chain & Ports
Secure up to 100 million cubic feet per day of gas via Shell, ensuring energy stability.
Nigeria Ports Authority plans infrastructure upgrades, including extra tugboats and deeper handling capacity, to underpin export ambitions.
Financial Visibility
Dangote plans to list the fertilizer unit on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2025, followed by his refinery IPO in 2026.
Revenue Projections
At full export volume (≈ 16,000 tonnes a day), the plant could generate $6.5–7 million daily—totaling over $2.5 billion annually.
Broader Implications: Beyond Fertilizer
Food Security: Lower input costs empower farmers, potentially doubling crop yields and combating hunger.
Currency Relief: Halving fertilizer imports could save Nigeria around $400–500 million per year, alleviating forex pressure.
Economic Ripple Effects: Local production fosters jobs, strengthens value chains, and supports industrialization.
Investor Attraction: The forthcoming IPO could open a rare window for private investment in Africa’s agribusiness sector.
conclusion
Dangote’s vision is nothing short of transformative for African agriculture. With a bold execution plan, financial clarity, and continental market access, Africa could become self-reliant in fertilizer—a decisive step toward economic empowerment.
However, this path is not without hurdles. Port logistics, infrastructural upgrades, and maintaining momentum under global competition are critical success factors.
As the expansion progresses, keep an eye on:
IPO announcements and investor terms
Infrastructure improvements at ports like Lagos and Lekki
Trade shifts within AfCFTA
Real farm-level impact on food prices and agricultural output
