Date: June 19, 2025
1. A Silent Threat Amplifying Violence
At a high-level seminar in Abuja commemorating its 25th anniversary, the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), led by Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, issued a grave warning: climate change is evolving into a direct catalyst for armed conflict and mass displacement, particularly in fragile zones across Nigeria and the Sahel.
2. Breakdown of the Crisis
Dwindling resources: Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have shrunk grazing lands, reduced crop yields, and dried up water sources.
Resource competition: Farmers and pastoralists now clash violently over what remains, especially in North-Central, North-West, and North-East Nigeria.
Human toll: Climate stress plus violent extremism has forced millions to flee, creating humanitarian emergencies in regions already plagued by conflict.
3. Voices from the Seminar
Dr. Ochogwu stated: “Climate change is no longer a distant threat; it is a present and destabilising force,” highlighting the urgent need for coordinated response.
Former UN Deputy Rep Amb. Usman Sarki emphasized the need to move from theory to action: “Stabilisation… requires a holistic approach… good and credible governments, effective security, people empowerment, and food
4. Beyond Climate: A Complex Nexus
This isn’t just environmental degradation—it’s a perfect storm of pressures:
Food insecurity: Around 25 million Nigerians face acute food shortages, worsened by climate shocks and conflict.
Socio-economic desperation: Drought-driven loss of livelihoods pushes individuals toward criminality or extremist groups.
Farmer-herder confrontations: Intensifying competition for scant resources fuels violence—some 60,000 deaths recorded since 2001, according to IPCR.
5. A Holistic Response Agenda
IPCR urged a shift from reactive to preventive, integrated strategies, including
Climate-smart agriculture to bolster yields amid unpredictable weather
Early warning systems using community intelligence and ICT
Alternative livelihoods for youth and marginalized groups to reduce economic desperation
Empowering women, particularly in local governance and conflict resolution
Regional cooperation, especially across the Sahel, to harmonize policies and resources
6. Why Now? What It Means for Nigeria
Government alignment: IPCR’s call dovetails with President Tinubu’s eight-point agenda and Nigeria’s 4D foreign policy—Democracy, Development, Demography, Diaspora—marking climate and conflict as interlinked priorities.
Ubiquity of impact: From desertification in the north to floods in the south displacing farmers and destroying crops, climate-driven instability is a national issue.
Urgent policy need: Experts, including faith leaders, are calling for faith-based climate justice advocacy and better environmental governance to pressure for action.
7. The Road Ahead
Nigeria’s path forward involves
Integrating climate adaptation into security and peacebuilding frameworks
Scaling up early warning and response technologies, especially in hotspot areas
Empowering vulnerable communities, notably women and youth, with alternatives and decision-making roles
Fostering regional collaboration across ECOWAS and Sahel partners to address the transnational nature of climate-driven displacement and conflict
Conclusion
What began as environmental stress has become a security flashpoint. Through clear-eyed strategies—leveraging climate-smart practices, community resilience, and robust regional cooperation—Nigeria has the opportunity to break the vicious cycle of environmental decline and violence, and chart a path towards sustainable peace and prosperity.
